MWI Weekly 9.16.2022
Image courtesy the Museum of the Great Patriotic War (Kyiv, Ukraine)
This week: Ukraine on the offense, Hunter Biden's laptop, tea in Taiwan, Superman, civilian-military relations. And nukes.
It's probably fair to say this past summer has been one of the more dramatic in recent memory. From extreme weather to the mayhem at Mar-a-Lago to generational economic disruption to the lingering challenges of the Covid-19 pandemic, we've all had a lot on our minds.
But here we are. As has happened so often before, I'm struck by the resilience of the human spirit and our ability as a country -- and a world -- to find a way to cope. For all we've had thrown on our plates, life goes on, we continue to go to work and do our jobs, study at school, find ways to have fun and socialize, and in general go on living our lives.
None of which is to minimize the suffering so many have endured. As of Sept. 14, there have been 95.46 million confirmed Covid-19 cases in the United States and 1.05 million deaths. It's a horrifying toll. But even a cursory glance at any of the charts shows how dramatically cases and deaths have fallen on a daily basis this year.
If we can continue to be diligent, before too long we may be able to safely say we've put the worst of it behind us. And that means we'll be able to fully concentrate on repairing the damage and truly get life back to normal.
Of course, getting life back to normal still means dealing with the problems we cause ourselves, beyond those Mother Nature throws at us. None are more significant than the War in Ukraine. Yet even there, all signs point to better days ahead for the Good Guys, even as the dangers and geopolitical risks persist.
Izyum Serious?
By now, it's become clear the Ukrainian operation in the Donbas is much more than the limited attack on Kherson many thought the Army of Ukraine was mounting as the intensity of combat began to ramp up last week. So well did Ukraine mask their intentions, their assault on the northern sector of the Russian line caught everyone (not least of all the Russians themselves) completely by surprise.
It was a masterful feat of arms. Putin's forces, thinking their main priority was to defend the land bridge from Crimea, had concentrated in the south, while the Ukrainians were carefully (and, apparently, quietly) massing resources and manpower in the north. When they were finally unleashed, they shattered the opposing Russian armies and regained all the territory lost since the early days of the Russian invasion in March. And more.
But that doesn't mean the attack on Kherson was a feint. Even as Ukraine was liberating the entirety of the Kharkiv Oblast, reports began to emerge of Russian units in Kherson -- caught on the wrong side of the river and running short of supplies, as well as any route to escape -- negotiating a possible surrender.
As of this writing (and granting the confusion inherent in the fog of war), it does not appear Russian forces in the south have collapsed to the same degree as in the north, where the Russians apparently lost the entirety of the recently reconstituted 3rd Army Corps and a significant portion of the 1st Guards Tank Army.
But the threat to the Russian position is clear to anyone who can read a map: Should the Ukrainians take Kherson and move on to Melitopol, where partisans have been waging an effective resistance behind the lines, the position of the invaders would suddenly become nearly untenable.
For their part, the Ukrainians are doing their best to keep their elation in check. They're fully aware of the brute firepower Putin's army still possesses, and they're likewise fully cognizant of the dangers of overextending their own lines and leaving themselves vulnerable to counterattack. By all accounts, they're sticking to the plan: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 14 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
Yet, it's worth noting, no sooner had Izyum been liberated than President Zelenskyy of Ukraine paid a visit to the troops. It's a marked contrast to his opponent, who remains holed up in Moscow, seemingly at a loss for a way to rebuild his forces and regain the initiative while avoiding what could be a domestically disastrous general mobilization. While the Kremlin may forever be, with apologies to Winston Churchill, a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma, it's hard to avoid comparing the confusion, and perhaps even fear, in Moscow with the martial vigor in Kyiv.
As heartening as the picture has become, there is still a long way to go. Cautious optimism is the best attitude, at least for now. After all, in war nothing is ever finished until it is finished, and even then, it is usually just finished until the next time. And there are always surprises.
But of one thing we can be certain already: The principle of collective security has gotten a real-world test of the most brutal kind and passed with flying colors. No one of a just disposition and a balanced mind would deny the Ukrainians their due for their courage, discipline and fortitude, and their remarkable ability to improvise, adapt and overcome. At the same time, no one could possibly deny the influence of Western support, including the supply of arms, intelligence and training, all of which was well in train as long as five years ago and may soon prove decisive.
Victory, when it comes, will belong to the Ukrainians. But the fruits of that victory will justly be shared by all the liberal democracies which have done so much to help President Zelenskyy and his country so bravely defend the fundamental principles of liberty and national sovereignty. Slava Ukraini.
The Lonely Hunter
With the end of primary season, the field is set for the midterm election in November. The polls have wobbled quite a bit over the summer, but as it stands today it would still appear a Republican majority in the House and a Democratic hold in the Senate is the most likely outcome, despite the Democrats leading in the generic ballot.
A lot can happen over the next couple months, but assuming the GOP does indeed take control of the House, we can be sure a raft of investigations will follow, including investigations of investigations. They've said as much themselves. And their first target is bound to be Hunter Biden and his infamous laptop.
Whether there's much to the story beyond what we know already remains to be seen, although we can be sure for the people already invested in the "scandal" any facts or evidence which contradicts it isn't likely to gain much traction, and anything which hints at confirming it is likely to be portrayed in the most incriminating possible light. We've been down this road before.
That being said, there's no denying Hunter Biden was an absolute mess at one point in his life. And there's no question a lot of his business dealings can legitimately be considered questionable, as is often the case with the children of powerful people, and worthy of investigation. Were any probe of his activities to be conducted on the up and up, as a sincere effort to discover the truth about any influence peddling (or worse), we'd be all for it.
It's hard to have confidence that's the case. But be that as it may, it is a fascinating story, especially when seen in the full light of what we know so far. And a lot of the facts are coming from, of all places, the liberal press -- specifically, in the proudly left-leaning New York Magazine.
This is long, but an absolute must-read: The Sordid Saga of Hunter Biden’s Laptop (nymag.com)
So, stay tuned. Ultimately, from a political standpoint, it may not matter whether there's a real scandal or not. Neither will the fact so much of the potential evidence on the laptop is already so tainted. A dead issue is much harder to fight than a live one, of course, so the show will undoubtedly go on regardless.
Unfortunately, lost in all of it is the very worthwhile idea of reviewing the ethics rules we have in place for elected government officials and their families. They're clearly inadequate, where they exist at all. We need, and deserve, better. But in this next Congress we're not likely to get them.
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Members Blog
This week, member Daniel Nardini offers the personal story of a friend in Taiwan, their journey to become an American tea farmer in a foreign land, and how their determination to defend their adopted country offers a lesson to us all.
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In another Members Blog entry, founding member Hank Thayer addresses last autumn's change to the tagline of the Superman comic and why it represents a step away from something valuable. Check it out:
Truth, Justice and the American Way — Modern Whig Institute
The values Hank talks about are central to the American project. So is the concept of civilian control of the military. But with more and more revelations of the previous administration's shenanigans, the subject of civilian-military relations has become a hot topic in defense circles.
It's not quite as simple as many believe. While the president is unquestionably the Commander-in-Chief, they don't possess unquestioned power. We don't elect monarchs.
Fortunately, there's an institutional wisdom baked into our national command structure which has been firmly supported and upheld by retired officers and former senior civilian officials. And they've made no bones about what that wisdom dictates:
Let’s Stop Being Cavalier About Civilian Control of the Military - Lawfare (lawfareblog.com)
As always, we stand with those who would preserve our traditions and insist on adherence to both formal process and time-honored rules of conduct. Often, it is only the faithfulness to our unwritten (and written) code on the part of those in positions of power which prevents that power from being abused. Ultimately, our government (as Teddy Roosevelt said) is us -- and that means it's only as good as we are.
One of the central missions of the Institute is to see to it we're as good as we can be.
Why Become a Member? — Modern Whig Institute
As a reminder, our new Membership Packages include:
a Welcome Letter
an informational buckslip
a Modern Whig Institute sticker
a Whig Owl lapel pin
a Modern Whig Institute membership card
(Please allow 4-6 weeks for delivery.)
Finally, one of the facts we've been harping on for the last few years is finally starting to gain wide acceptance, even within the environmentalist community: The way out of our climate conundrum is to generate more power -- specifically, electricity.
As this article points out, "An economy-wide transition away from fossil fuels, which is necessary to reduce carbon emissions, will mean an enormous increase in the number of vehicles, homes and a long list of other items that need electricity to run. Right now, the country simply doesn’t produce enough electricity to meet that potential surge in demand."
To us, having done the math these many years, the only way we can reasonably expect to generate enough electricity to maintain, or improve, our standard of living while remaining within the last of the carbon budget available to us (which is nothing less than a matter of long-term survival) is to embark on a crash program of nuclear power development. Solutions such as wind and solar, while worthwhile, simply can't do the job alone.
Fortunately, we have the designs and technological ability to get it done. The latest nuclear reactor designs are light years (pardon the pun) ahead of what we've had before and present us with a way out. Our problem is political and administrative; the permitting process takes far too long and is far too expensive, not to mention far too focused on small environmental gains over broad human welfare.
We can solve our problem. We just need the will to do it.
And that does it for this week. Remember to follow us on Facebook and Twitter for regular updates on our newest content and initiatives. And be sure to say hello.
As always, it's a pleasure to be at your service. See you next week.
Kevin J. Rogers is the executive director of the Modern Whig Institute. He can be reached at director@modernwhig.org. ___________________________________________________________
The Modern Whig Institute is a 501(c)(3) civic research and education foundation dedicated to the fundamental American principles of representative government, ordered liberty, capitalism, due process and the rule of law.
