The Center Holds

"Long Line at my Polling Place" by bunnicula is licensed under CC BY-ND 2.0.

This year’s midterm elections are proving to be a reason for hope.

I held off on this newsletter for as long as I could this week in the hope we'd gain some clarity on a few of the outstanding races, especially the gubernatorial contest in Arizona. But alas, votes are still being counted. We may not have all the final tallies in all the races until next week. And, of course, the election for United States Senate in Georgia is headed for a runoff on Dec. 6, which means we won't have a complete picture until the end of the year.

But we do know a few things already. One is the obvious: The very close national election we expected actually occurred. As expected, there was no read wave. Even in Wisconsin, where the Democrats ran an inarguably far-left candidate against a Republican incumbent, Mandela Barnes was able to come within a single percentage point of Ron Johnson.

In the rest of the country, vote-splitting among Republicans and a strong showing by young voters meant defeat for a host of Trump-sympathizing candidates. While quite a few election deniers were able to get past the post, for the most part they were the less egregious offenders. The full-throated conspiracy mongers were broadly sent packing.

That's especially true in the case of high state office. Just as one example, Doug Mastriano went down to a thumping defeat at the hands of Josh Shapiro in the election for governor of Pennsylvania. Not only is Mastriano a hard-right character and avowed Christian nationalist, but he was also present at the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol, and in his role as a state legislator introduced a resolution to overthrow the results of the 2020 presidential in Pennsylvania and called for legislation to short-circuit democratic elections in the future.

What's notable is how much Mastriano under-performed the GOP candidate for Senate, Dr. Oz. Clearly, a large bloc of Republican voters in Pennsylvania either voted for Shapiro or left their ballot blank when it came to the governor's race. It was a clear and unambiguous repudiation of extremism on the part of Pennsylvania's grassroots Republicans.

And the Keystone State wasn't the only place where something like that occurred. In fact, with the exception of Arizona), Trump-endorsed election deniers in prominent races got, to use a term of art, a shellacking overall. Even in Michigan, now arguably a swing state and long a hotbed of right-wing extremism and paramilitary activity (and the place where a band of Trump sympathizing nuts hatched a plot to kidnap the Democratic governor), Democrats rode the backlash to a clean sweep of the governorship and both houses of the state legislature.

Meanwhile, the best news of all was how quickly and easily the losing candidates of both parties conceded. At the very least, every significant losing candidate has vowed to "respect" the outcome of their races. In the overwhelming majority of cases, they've outright -- and often quite graciously -- conceded. And there have been no reports of screaming mobs descending on vote-counting facilities, even in places where that kind of behavior was not only feared but anticipated.

It's all quite heartening. Whatever one's political leanings, we all benefit from smooth elections, a fair and accurate assessment of the will of the people, a calm acceptance of the results and a peaceful transfer of power. Our fears of the horseshoe effect [link to video] turning into a donut (or worse yet, a noose) have, at least for now, proven unfounded.

And if it didn't happen now, with the most politically successful demagogue in American history driving the attempt to subvert our elections, maybe it never will. We may indeed have learned our lesson.

Sweet Dreams Are Made Of This

All that being said, the Republican Party did manage some notable victories. In all likelihood it's going to be a few weeks before we know the composition of the Senate, but it's clear now the GOP will have a majority, albeit a slim one, in the House. It almost certainly will be in the single digits, perhaps even as few as five seats.

Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who has long dreamed of holding the gavel, is the presumptive next Speaker of the House. Given the fates of both his most recent Republican predecessors, John Boehner and Paul Ryan (who, like McCarthy, was one of the original trio of GOP Young Guns in 2008 and who, like third gunner Eric Cantor as well as Boehner, was eventually driven out of electoral politics by his own party), it may be difficult to understand his enthusiasm for the job.

While McCarthy's bid is probably not in any real danger, he's already catching some heat from his hardline right flank, especially from some members of the Freedom Caucus. At the moment it doesn't look like his bid for the Speakership is in any real danger. But there's no question the headaches have already begun, and if the past is prelude to the future, they're only going to get worse.

As has so often been the case with so many throughout history, McCarthy's soaring (and searing) ambition may be his undoing. He doesn't have anything like Nancy Pelosi's talent for counting votes and whipping her caucus and keeping the more extreme elements within bounds. He doesn't have Boehner's character, common touch or devotion to principle. He doesn't have Ryan's grasp of policy or ability, wheither one agrees with it or not, to articulate a comprehensive vision.

Apparently, what he does have, and in abundance, is a survivor's instincts. And that may spell trouble for the rest of us. The House Republicans have already signaled their main goal as the majority isn't going to be legislating. It's going to be "investigations" -- a euphemism for the kind of bad-faith smearing for political purposes we've seen so often before.

They're also clearly lining up behind the idea of using the debt ceiling as leverage to try and force concessions from the Democrats and the Biden Administration. In other words, they're willing to threaten (yet again) a government shutdown, or perhaps even a default on its obligations by the United States, in order to bully their way through.

It won't work. It never has. And with such a slim majority in the House and, at best, an even slimmer one in the Senate -- if they manage a majority there at all -- there's no hope of some sweeping Republican agenda (if one even exists, given the fact the last GOP Convention didn't even issue a platform) finding its way into law. It's a fool's errand from the start.

But one thing about fools: They often don't realize how foolish they really are. They may actually do it. And even if cooler and wiser heads prevail, the possibility is there of a debt ceiling fight getting acrimonious enough to cause real economic damage even if Congress eventually comes to its senses.

Were we able to believe McCarthy will prove to be less focused on his own survival than ours, the American people could likely just make some popcorn and watch the circus on the Hill while quietly going about our own lives. For all the noise, Congress has a way of doing the essentials, a fact which often doesn't make the headlines, or even the news. And in the long run, maybe he will.

One can only dream.

Odds and Ends

Today is Veterans Day, one of our most important holidays. Unlike many of the other federal public holidays, we celebrate those who have served our country in uniform on the same date every year. There are a few reasons why, but it's rather fitting this particular tribute keeps that date rather than moving to a Monday:

History of Veterans Day - Office of Public and Intergovernmental Affairs (va.gov)

We owe everyone who has served our country a tremendous debt of gratitude. Paying that debt to a sufficient degree should be not only a bedrock policy principle, but it should also be something each of us, as citizens, is intent on seeing our government -- and ourselves -- do.

Meanwhile, the subject of philosophy and politics came up this week. It's a worthwhile discussion to have, especially in the light of the soaring (and searing -- you know, like Icarus) ambition we were discussing earlier:

Can Philosophy Make Our Politicians Better? - by Peter Juul (substack.com)

This one is a little long, but worth the time. It's yet more evidence cancel culture, like all extreme movements, has overreached. And it's yet more reason for hope:

Uncanceling Ourselves – Sapir Journal

I held off writing on this one because it's a full subject for a newsletter all its own (and might be next week's featured subject), but Ukraine has achieved a major victory against the Russian in Putin's war of aggression. Chalk one up for the Good Guys:

Ukraine forces enter Kherson as Russia retreats across Dnieper River (nbcnews.com)

And finally, 36 years after the horrible events of Jan. 28, 1986, divers have unexpectedly located a piece of wreckage from Space Shuttle Challenger. It's a remarkable find:

Divers Discover Piece of Space Shuttle Challenger Off Florida Coast (msn.com)

It might be worth a minute to revisit President Ronald Reagan's speech to the nation that night:

Challenger: President Reagan's Challenger Disaster Speech - 1/28/86 - YouTube

It's a reminder of how, despite our political differences, all true Americans share a basic sense of decency. We've seen it yet again in this election. And we've seen our fundamental courage, determination, ability and American spirit in too many instances to list here. There truly is no place on Earth quite like the United States of America.

And with that, I wish you a safe and fun weekend. As always, it's a pleasure to be at your service. See you next week.

Kevin J. Rogers is the executive director of the Modern Whig Institute. He can be reached at director@modernwhig.org. When not engaged with the Institute he publishes independently to Commentatio on Substack.

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The Modern Whig Institute is a 501(c)(3) civic research and education foundation dedicated to the fundamental American principles of representative government, ordered liberty, capitalism, due process and the rule of law.